xG shows Arsenal leading overall despite heavy Brighton defeat
September 23, 2026 09:22
Expected goals (xG) metrics suggest Arsenal have been the best team overall so far, even after their heavy defeat to Brighton. Manchester City sit close behind on xG difference, while Brentford’s unbeaten start is reflected in strong xG numbers.
WHO IS OVER- AND UNDERPERFORMING
Brighton lead the league for attacking output by xG, followed by Manchester City, Brentford and Manchester United. Brighton have also been exceptionally clinical, scoring 15 non‑penalty goals from 10.7 xG.
Newcastle present the clearest contrast: they have the lowest xG in the division so far but have converted chances at an extraordinary rate, scoring nine goals from 4.5 xG. By contrast, Coventry, Sunderland, Nottingham Forest and Tottenham have scored around three goals fewer than xG would suggest.
DEFENSIVE PICTURE
Arsenal remain the best defence on xG measures despite their recent heavy loss. Oliver Glasner at Nottingham Forest and Andoni Iraola at Liverpool have both established solid defensive foundations, according to the xG data. On the other hand, Crystal Palace, Fulham and Chelsea have looked overly open at the back.
Brighton’s forward prowess has not come with defensive solidity; the figures indicate they may have been fortunate not to concede more often. Everton and Leeds have conceded about three goals fewer than expected and are among the strongest defensively by xG.
WIDER CONTEXT
xG excludes penalties for this comparison and, while small sample sizes mean early-season rankings should be treated cautiously, Premier League history shows teams that dominate games more often convert that domination into points over the longer term. The xG picture also suggests promoted sides Hull and Ipswich have made solid starts.
WHY IT MATTERS
The xG table offers a different snapshot of form than the conventional standings. It highlights which teams have been creating and allowing quality chances — a metric that has historically correlated with long-term points accumulation — and therefore which positions in the early table look most and least sustainable.